So, what are Danica Roem’s chances of victory in the June 13 primary? Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia, said there’s “no effective way to predict” the winner in this four-candidate competition.
“Virginia primaries are low-turnout affairs, and the advantage will go to the candidate who is best at getting their supporters to show up on primary day,” he explained. “Roem has been outraised by two of her three opponents, but in a four-candidate primary, money may not turn out to be decisive. She certainly has raised enough money to become a visible and viable candidate.”
In terms of the general election, it is likewise difficult to predict, according to Farnsworth, but he noted that “Marshall has been a canny political survivor over the years. He has been a target of Democrats in election after election, but he has consistently survived the challenges he has faced.”