The 11th District is generally regarded as a safe Democratic seat. Connolly won his last race with more than 65% of the vote, and Kamala Harris carried it by a similar margin. Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, believes the district may lean even further left this year, “given Trump’s battles with the federal employment system.” (More than 80,000 federal workers live in the district.)

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