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UMW To Host 1st Congressional District Debate: 7:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 6

The University of Mary Washington will host the 1st Congressional District Debate on Monday, Oct. 6 at 7:30 p.m. in George Washington Hall’s Dodd Auditorium.

The debate will present Republican Rep. Rob Wittman, who has held the seat since 2007, Democratic challenger Norm Mosher and Independent Green Party Candidate Gail Parker. The 1st District includes more than 15 counties and includes parts of Stafford, Spotsylvania, and the city of Fredericksburg. The event is free and open to the public.

Wittman, a resident of Montross, co-chairs the House Chesapeake Bay Watershed Caucus and serves on the House Natural Resources Committee. Prior to his election to Congress, he served in the House of Delegates for the Northern Neck.

A former captain of the U.S. Navy, Mosher is a resident of Irvington. He served on the Irvington Town Council and as chair of the Lancaster County Democratic Committee.

Gail Parker is a retired US Air Force Reserve officer who was also a candidate for Virginia's First District in 2010 and 2012.

Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies, will moderate the program. Panelists will be Chelyen Davis, assistant editorial page editor at The Free Lance-Star, and Ted Schubel, news director for B101.5 and WFVA’s News Talk 1230.

The debate is co-sponsored by the Fredericksburg Area Chamber of Commerce; The Free Lance-Star; UMW’s Young Democrats; UMW’s College Republicans; The Blue and Gray Press; and the university’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.

For more information about the debate, contact Stephen Farnsworth at sfarnswo@umw.edu.

Virginians Say Governor Should Pay Legal Bills, UMW Survey Shows

By a margin of more than 15-to-one, Virginians who have heard about the scandal involving Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and a wealthy donor believe that the governor, not the taxpayers, should pay for his legal defense, according to a new survey sponsored by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.

Two-thirds of the 1,001 state residents surveyed Sept. 25-29 said they had heard or read about the scandal, and of that group 85 percent said the governor should be picking up the tab, not the taxpayers. Five percent believed the taxpayers should pay, with the rest undecided. Results from the same poll released by the Center on Friday also showed that 42 percent of likely voters in the upcoming Virginia election favor Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor, with 35 percent in favor of Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.

Two outside law firms hired by the attorney general’s office to defend McDonnell and other state employees over issues involving Star Scientific CEO Jonnie Williams Sr. and a former Executive Mansion chef already have billed the state more than $240,000. Prosecutors have not yet said whether they will charge the governor over his financial dealings with Williams.

The overwhelming citizen preference that the governor pays for his lawyers crossed party lines. Eighty percent of Republicans said that the governor should be paying the legal bills, compared to 84 percent of independents and 89 percent of the Democrats.

By a margin of more than two to one, people who had heard about the scandal and had an opinion thought the governor was involved in wrongdoing (38 percent versus 15 percent). Nearly half of those who had heard about the scandal (46 percent) said they were not sure.

A greater partisan gap was apparent on this question. Only 23 percent of Republicans thought the governor was involved in wrongdoing, compared to 35 percent of independents and 51 percent of Democrats.

Overall, 42 percent of Virginians approved of the governor’s job performance, down from 52 percent in the March 2013 UMW survey. A total of 37 percent disapproved, compared to 26 percent in the March survey who were unhappy with McDonnell’s performance. The March survey was conducted shortly before the scandal first broke.

Roughly one out of every four state residents (24 percent) thought the governor should resign over the matter, while 60 percent said he should remain in office. McDonnell, whose term expires in January, was not eligible to run for re-election this year because of term limits.

Only 15 percent of Republicans said the governor should resign, compared to 20 percent of independents and 36 percent of the Democrats.

“The good news for the governor is that, despite the scandal, a significant number of state residents continue to think positively of him and many other Virginians have not made up their minds about what he has done,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at UMW and director of the university’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “The bad news for McDonnell is that the taxpayers really, really don’t like being stuck with the bill for the governor’s lawyers.”

Farnsworth said that the results of the survey, conducted on the center’s behalf by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, provide further evidence that Virginia views its political leaders more favorably than residents of many other states.

“Despite the scandal, McDonnell enjoys more positive assessments than do many other state governors,” Farnsworth said.

Further details on the survey’s findings, including key breakdowns by factors including age and region of residence, are found below.

The Fall 2013 Virginia Survey, sponsored by University of Mary Washington (UMW), obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,001 adults living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (500) and cell phone (501, including 214 without a landline phone). The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI). Interviews were done in English by Princeton Data Source from September 25 to 29, 2013. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 3.5 percentage points.

Governor Topline for UMW Survey, Fall 2013

Support for the governor paying for the legal bills relating to scandal was widespread across all key groups of state residents. Among women, 88 percent thought he should pay, compared to 82 percent of the men.

Regional differences also were modest. In Northern Virginia, 77 percent said the governor should pay the bill, compared to 90 percent in both the Tidewater and the state’s northwest region. In the south-central part of the state, which includes Richmond, 84 percent said he should pay, compared to 88 percent in the state’s western counties.

Residents 65 or older were the least willing to insist that McDonnell foot the bill, but, even among that group, 78 percent thought he should pay. Residents between the ages of 30 and 44 were most insistent, with 90 percent expecting the governor to pick up the tab.

Among African-Americans, 87 percent said he should pay, compared to 85 percent of whites and 83 percent of Latinos.

Was there Wrong-Doing?

One-third (33 percent) of Tidewater-region residents, a part of the state the governor once represented in the legislature, thought the governor was guilty of wrongdoing, compared to 34 percent in the western part of the state, 36 percent in Northern Virginia, 42 percent in south-central Virginia, and 47 percent in the state’s northwest.

Older voters were most critical, with 45 percent of those aged 65 years or older believing that the governor was involved in wrongdoing, compared to 40 percent in the 45- to 64-year age group. The two youngest groups were the least critical, with only 24 percent of the residents under 30 years of age saying that McDonnell engaged in wrongdoing. The 30- to 44-age group also was less critical than older Virginians, with 36 percent saying that the governor engaged in wrongdoing.

No gender gap existed on this question. Among both men and women, 38 percent said they believed there was wrongdoing by the governor, while 16 percent of the women and 15 percent of the men thought there was no wrongdoing. The rest were unsure.

UMW Survey Shows Virginians Favor Warner in 2014 Senate Race

U.S. Sen. Mark Warner would hold a commanding lead over Gov. Bob McDonnell if the two decide to face off in a U.S. Senate campaign next year, according to a new Virginia survey sponsored by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.

Warner received 51 percent support, compared to 35 percent for McDonnell, in the survey of 1,004 state residents conducted March 20-24. The remaining respondents were undecided or declined to answer the question. The margin of sampling error is 3.5 percentage points for the complete survey sample.

Data from the survey also includes Virginians’ views of key issues such as gay marriage, the federal deficit and the death penalty .

According to a new survey, Virginians would support Sen. Mark Warner (left) over Gov. Bob McDonnell in a 2014 Senate match-up. McDonnell’s photo courtesy of the Office of the Governor, Michaele White.

Warner, a former Virginia governor in his first term in the U.S. Senate, said recently that he plans to run for re-election. McDonnell, whose term-limited tenure as governor expires next January, is the strongest potential Republican challenger to Warner, should he choose to enter the race.

In the survey, McDonnell received 52 percent job approval, comparable to the figure he has received in other recent surveys. Only 26 percent polled say they disapprove of the governor’s job performance.

“The good news for the governor is that state residents continue to think very highly of him,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at UMW and director of the university’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “The bad news is that McDonnell is term-limited and the next statewide election – the 2014 U.S. Senate contest — doesn’t seem all that appealing.”

Despite the disadvantages McDonnell would face against Warner in a Senate contest, many Virginians see the governor as a potential president. While Virginians express the strongest support for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie for the 2016 GOP nod, 12 percent of respondents identify McDonnell as their first choice, and another 10 percent rate him as their second choice. (The comparable numbers for Christie show 18 percent name him as a first choice and another 8 percent list him as a second choice).

Many Virginians also view Warner as presidential material, though he lags behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton among potential Democratic presidential candidates in 2016. A total of 18 percent rate him as their first choice and another 16 percent list him as their second choice for the nomination, far more than supported Vice President Biden. (The comparable numbers for Clinton show 38 percent favor her as their first choice and another 15 percent say she is their second choice.)

“In these tough economic times, a lot of voters have turned on their elected officials, particularly governors,” Farnsworth said. “But Virginia’s last two governors currently hold the state’s two U.S. Senate seats and the current chief executive also continues to fare well in the court of public opinion.”

The survey also shows a dead-heat match in the November 2013 race to be the state’s next governor, with Democratic Terry McAuliffe receiving the support of 38 percent, compared to 37 percent for Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.

Further details on the survey’s findings, including key breakdowns by factors including party identification, age and region of residence, are found below.

Warner versus McDonnell

Warner’s substantial advantages over McDonnell in this hypothetical Senate match-up are seen across a variety of elements of the Virginia electorate. Warner is favored by double-digit percentage margins over the governor among men (52 percent to 40 percent, with the rest undecided) and women (56 percent to 34 percent).

Warner also is favored over McDonnell by very similar margins in all five regions of the state. In Tidewater, Warner’s advantage is 56 percent to 37 percent for McDonnell. Warner receives 54 percent support in both northern Virginia and in the western regions of the state, where McDonnell receives 37 percent and 39 percent respectively. Support for the incumbent in northwest Virginia is 53 percent, compared to 34 percent for McDonnell. In his worst region, Warner is favored by 52 percent of the respondents in south central Virginia, which includes the Richmond area, as compared to 36 percent who back McDonnell.

Voters aged 30 to 44 emerge as Warner’s strongest supporters, where he is favored by a margin of 59 percent to 31 percent. Close behind is the 45-64 age group, where the incumbent is favored by 57 as compared to 37 for McDonnell. Respondents under 30 years of age also favor Warner by a double-digit margin: 51 percent to 35 percent. In one of the few bright spots for McDonnell, both he and the incumbent register 46 percent among the high-voting group of residents at least 65 in age.

A great deal of partisan loyalty is evident for these two potential candidates. Warner receives the support of 93 percent of Democrats, with only 4 percent backing McDonnell. The governor fares well among GOP identifiers, winning 83 percent of them, while losing 10 percent of Republicans to Warner. Independents break for Warner by a margin of 51 percent to 33 percent, with the rest undecided.

African-American voters favor Warner by 90 percent, 7 percent of whom back McDonnell. Latinos favor Warner as well, by a margin of 57 percent to 28 percent. McDonnell has a narrow edge among white voters, by a margin of 47 percent to 44 percent (though the percentages were too close to be outside the margin of error).

McAuliffe versus Cuccinelli

Cuccinelli is strongest in western regions of the state, where 48 percent of respondents support him, and 38 percent support McAuliffe, with the rest undecided. Cuccinelli also does relatively well in south central Virginia, which includes the Richmond region, with 42 percent support. McAuliffe gets 38 percent support there.

The Democratic nominee does well in northern Virginia, where he receives 45 percent support, but Cuccinelli, a former state senator from Fairfax County, receives 41 percent support in Washington suburbs. In the state’s northwest, McAuliffe generates 43 percent support, while Cuccinelli receives 39 percent. Tidewater leans to McAuliffe in the survey, by a 43 percent to 36 percent margin.

A gender gap is not evident between these two candidates. Women support McAuliffe by a 41 percent to 39 percent margin for Cuccinelli, while men favor the Republican by a 43 percent to 42 percent margin.

So far, there are few partisan defections in this race. McAuliffe enjoys the support of 83 percent of the Democrats, with only 7 percent of them backing the attorney general. Cuccinelli enjoys the support of 87 percent of the Republicans, with only 4 percent backing the Democrat. Independents are basically split: 36 percent back the attorney general and 35 percent back McAuliffe.

The Virginia Survey March 2013, sponsored by University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,004 adults living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (502) and cell phone (502, including 245 without a landline phone). The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI). Interviews were done in English by Princeton Data Source from March 20 to 24, 2013. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 3.5 percentage points.

For more information, contact: Stephen J. Farnsworth by cell at (703) 380-3025 or by emailing him at sfarnswo@umw.edu.