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Virginians Favor Legalizing Medical Marijuana, UMW Survey Shows

By a margin of more than two-to-one, Virginians believe that the use of marijuana for medical purposes should be legal under federal law, according to a new survey sponsored by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.

Of the 1,001 state residents surveyed Sept. 25-29, 71 percent said that the use of medical marijuana with a prescription should be legalized, with 23 percent believing that it should remain illegal and the rest were unsure.

In a recent poll, 71 percent of Virginians said that the use of medical marijuana with a prescription should be legalized. Image from istockphoto.com.

Results from the same poll released earlier by the Center also showed that 42 percent of the likely voters in the upcoming Virginia election favor Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor, while 35 percent favor of Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli. The UMW survey also showed that, by more than 15-to-one margin, Virginians who have heard about the scandal involving Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and a wealthy donor believe that the governor, not the taxpayers, should pay for his legal defense.

Virginia has not taken steps to legalize medical marijuana. The District of Columbia and Maryland, as well as more than a dozen other states, have approved their own medical marijuana laws. A proposed federal medical marijuana initiative has received little support on Capitol Hill.

Responses to the questions varied greatly by age. Just over half (53 percent) of voters 65 years of age and older favored legalization of medical marijuana, compared to 71 percent in the 45-54 age group, 73 percent in the 30-44 age group, and 84 percent in the 18-30 age group.

The question obtained majority support among all partisan groups. Among Republicans surveyed, 55 percent agreed with federal legalization of medical marijuana, as did 75 percent of independent and 80 percent of Democrats.

Around the state, support for the measure was highest in Tidewater, with 79 percent support, and in Northern Virginia, with 77 percent support. In south central Virginia, the measure generated 72 percent support, compared to 68 percent in northwest Virginia and 57 percent in the state’s western region.

No real gender gap is apparent on the question, with 73 percent of men and 70 percent of women favoring federal legalization of medical marijuana.

Image from istockphoto.com.

Among African-Americans, 79 percent favored the measure, compared to 70 percent of whites and Latinos.

In the survey’s other policy-related findings:

By a margin of 53 percent to 41 percent, Virginians said the state should recognize the marriages of gay and lesbian couples who are married in a state where gay marriage is legal.

By a margin of 59 percent to 31 percent, state residents said the state should expand access to health care for low-income, uninsured state residents. That proposal is part of the Affordable Care Act, though the law was not mentioned by name in the question.

By a margin of 52 percent to 42 percent, voters opposed a one-year increase in the normal retirement age, from 67 to 68, to help reduce the budget deficit. A two-year increase in the retirement age, to 69, was opposed by Virginians 59 percent to 38 percent in UMW’s March 2013 survey.

By a margin of 57 percent to 32 percent, Virginians said they favored a law that would tie the federal minimum wage to inflation. (The federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour.)

Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed said that they believed the economy has been getting worse over the past year, compared to 35 percent in UMW’s March survey. A total of 33 percent say the economy has been improving, the same as in the March survey.

The Fall 2013 Virginia Survey, sponsored by University of Mary Washington (UMW), obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,001 adults living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (500) and cell phone (501, including 214 without a landline phone). The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI). Interviews were done in English by Princeton Data Source from September 25 to 29, 2013. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 3.5 percentage points.

UMW Survey Topline

UMW Survey Shows Virginians Lean Toward McAuliffe in Governor’s Race

Democrat Terry McAuliffe has the support of 42 percent of likely voters in this year’s race for governor of Virginia, compared to 35 percent for Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, according to a new survey sponsored by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.

Terry McAuliffe. Courtesy of Terry McAuliffe for Governor.

Robert Sarvis, a Libertarian candidate who also is on the gubernatorial ballot, received 10 percent support among likely voters in the poll of 1,001 state residents conducted during Sept. 25-29.

Among registered voters, the margin between the two major party candidates was wider. A total of 43 percent of the registered voters said they supported McAuliffe and 33 percent backed Cuccinelli in the poll. Sarvis received the endorsement of nine percent of the 823 registered voters in the survey.

Among all residents surveyed, McAuliffe was favored by a 39 percent to 31 percent margin, with nine percent for Sarvis.

More than half (52 percent) of likely voters viewed Cuccinelli unfavorably, with 36 percent viewing him favorably. For McAuliffe, the ratings were 35 percent unfavorable and 38 percent favorable among the 559 likely voters in the survey.

Ken Cuccinelli. Courtesy of the Office of the Attorney General of Virginia.

The vast majority of likely voters said they did not know enough about Sarvis to evaluate him, with only seven percent assessing him favorably and five percent assessing him negatively.

McAuliffe captured the endorsement of 81 percent of Democratic likely voters, while Cuccinelli had the support of 74 percent of Republican likely voters. Three percent of likely Democratic voters backed Sarvis, as did seven percent of likely Republican voters. The Libertarian did best among independents, winning the support of 19 percent of that group.

Cuccinelli received the support of 34 percent of likely independent voters in the survey, as compared to 29 percent support among independents for McAuliffe.

In the race for lieutenant governor, 39 percent of likely voters surveyed said they would back Democratic Sen. Ralph Northam and 35 percent expressed support for Republican E.W. Jackson. Among registered voters, the results were 40 percent favoring Northam and 32 percent supporting Jackson.

The GOP fared best in the race for attorney general, where Republican Sen. Mark Obenshain received the support of 42 percent of likely voters, as compared to 36 percent who backed Democratic Sen. Mark Herring. Among registered voters, 38 percent supported Herring and 36 percent favored Obenshain. Republicans have won the last five elections for attorney general.

Robert Sarvis. Courtesy of Robert Sarvis for Governor.

“The results show that Virginia has three competitive statewide races this year,”

said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at UMW and director of the university’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “In addition, the strong showing by the Libertarian candidate for governor in this survey adds to the challenges all the gubernatorial candidates face as they need to adjust their strategies to a three-way-race.”

Farnsworth said that the results of the survey, conducted on the Center’s behalf by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, provide further evidence that Virginia will continue to generate significant national attention as the election approaches.

“When Virginia campaigns are close, as these races are, we can expect lots of national interest in – and campaign cash for — political activities in the Old Dominion,” Farnsworth said.

The survey also examined Virginia voter preferences among the potential candidates for president in 2016. Among the possible Democratic contenders, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored by 32 percent of registered voters, with U.S. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia placing second with 18 percent support. Vice President Joe Biden was a distant third with eight percent support. Clinton, Warner and Biden also placed first, second and third in UMW’s March 2013 survey of registered voters.

Among the other potential Democratic candidates, three percent of registered voters backed Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, two percent backed New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and one percent favored Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.

The poll examines Virginians’ views by looking at the various regions of the Commonwealth.

For the Republicans, 23 percent of registered voters in Virginia said they would back New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, as compared to 10 percent who would support former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, nine percent favoring Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and eight percent each backing Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who generated significant attention during his marathon filibuster last month, only received the support of five percent of registered voters in this potential GOP competition.

Christie also led in the March 2013 UMW poll regarding the GOP candidate preferences of Virginia voters, with Ryan, Paul, Rubio, Bush and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell bunched further back. (The earlier survey was conducted before McDonnell’s financial controversy became public. He was not included in the latest list of potential GOP presidential candidates.).

The survey also revealed declining popularity for President Obama in Virginia. Among registered voters, 46 percent approved of the job he was doing and 47 percent disapproved. In the March 2013 UMW survey, 51 percent approved and 44 percent disapproved.

Further details on the survey’s findings regarding the race for governor, including key breakdowns by factors including party identification, age and region of residence, are found below.

2013 1003 UMW VA Survey Fall 2013_Election Topline

The race for governor:

Among likely voters, women strongly favor McAuliffe by a 48 percent to 30 percent margin for Cuccinelli, with nine percent of the women expressing support for Sarvis. For male likely voters, Cuccinelli had 41 percent support, compared to 36 percent for McAuliffe and 10 percent for Sarvis.

Regional differences also were substantial. McAuliffe fared best in Northern Virginia, with the support of 55 percent of likely voters, as compared to 29 percent for Cuccinelli and six percent for Sarvis. McAuliffe also fared well in the Tidewater region, with 49 percent support, compared to 30 percent for Cuccinelli and seven percent for Sarvis. In south-central Virginia, which includes the Richmond area, Cuccinelli was favored by 35 percent of likely voters, as compared to 33 percent for McAuliffe and 17 percent for Sarvis.

Cuccinelli was the strongest in the northwest region of the state, where he was support by 49 percent of likely voters, as compared to 29 percent for McAuliffe and 11 percent for Sarvis. In the state’s western region, Cuccinelli was favored by 42 percent, as compared to 34 percent for McAuliffe and 10 percent for Sarvis.

McAuliffe was particularly strong among the likely voters under 30, winning 54 percent of their support, as compared to 24 percent for Cuccinelli and 17 percent for Sarvis. Older voters were more split: McAuliffe received 38 percent, compared to 32 percent for Cuccinelli and 14 percent for Sarvis in the 30-44 age group. The story was similar among likely voters between the ages of 45 and 64: 43 percent backed McAuliffe, 38 percent favored Cuccinelli and 8 percent favored Sarvis. Among likely voters 65 or older, McAuliffe had the support of 39 percent, versus 38 percent for Cuccinelli and 8 percent for Sarvis.

Among likely voters who are African Americans, 79 percent supported McAuliffe as compared to six percent for Cuccinelli and one percent for Sarvis. Among white voters, Cuccinelli received 43 percent support, as compared to 34 percent for McAuliffe and 11 percent for Sarvis. Sixty percent of Latino likely voters said they would vote for McAuliffe, with 23 percent backing Cuccinelli and 13 percent favoring Sarvis.

For more information, contact Stephen Farnsworth by cell at (703) 380-3025 or email him at sfarnswo@umw.edu.

UMW Survey Shows Virginians Divided on Same-Sex Marriage

The question of legalizing gay marriage closely divides Virginians, according to data from a new survey of state residents sponsored by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.

The survey of 1,004 state residents, conducted March 20-24, shows that 45 percent support legalization of gay marriage, with 46 percent opposed. The remaining respondents were undecided or declined to answer the question. The margin of sampling error for the study is 3.5 percentage points.

A new study from the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies shows that Virginia remains a swing state on many key issues.

The new UMW survey comes as the U.S. Supreme Court debates two gay marriage cases and as public opinion nationally has shifted in the direction of gay marriage. The UMW survey results represent significant gains for legalization of same-sex marriage in Virginia. In 2006, the commonwealth’s voters approved an amendment to the Virginia Constitution to ban gay marriage by a 57 percent to 43 percent margin.

“Rarely does public opinion shift on a social issue as rapidly as it has for gay marriage,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at UMW and director of the university’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “While opposition to gay marriage remains stronger here than nationally, the rapid erosion of that opposition among Virginians in the years since the 2006 amendment vote is astonishing.”

The results of the survey, conducted on the center’s behalf by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, provide further evidence that Virginia is a “purple” swing state in national politics, Farnsworth said. The survey also includes Virginians’ views of upcoming key state and national races.

While the study shows that Virginians are warming to the idea of same-sex marriage, support for conservative social policies – like the death penalty — remains strong. Sixty-five percent of the respondents support capital punishment, with 27 percent opposed. The remaining respondents are either uncertain or declined to answer the question.

“People who think Virginia is becoming another ‘blue-state’ like Maryland find little support in this study for that theory,” Farnsworth said. “The results here suggest Virginia’s continued independent stance, where the state’s largely moderate voters pick and choose among the policy positions they find appealing.”

An overwhelming majority of Virginians also support a path to legalization for illegal immigrants. By a margin of 71 percent to 25 percent Virginians support a government initiative to create a path to citizenship for workers currently in the country illegally.

Respondents turned thumbs-down on a proposed increase in the federal retirement age from 67 to 69 to reduce the federal budget deficit.

Further details on the survey’s findings, including key breakdowns by party identification, age and region of residence are found below.

Same Sex Marriage

Among those who answered the same-sex marriage question, the youngest Virginians show the most support, while the oldest residents mainly opposed. Among those between the ages of 18 and 29, 66 percent of respondents approved legalizing same-sex marriage, while 31 percent opposed; the rest were unsure.

The question also generated majority support in the 30-44 age group, with 54 percent supporting gay marriage and 42 percent opposed. The two older age groups in the study were more critical: only 39 percent of those surveyed between the ages of 45 and 64 supported legalizing gay marriage, compared to 56 percent against it. For those 65 years of age and older, 29 percent supported and 65 percent opposed.

Substantial regional differences on the same-sex marriage question predominated. More than 59 percent of the residents of northern Virginia support legalizing gay marriage, with 37 percent opposed. Some 50 percent of the respondents from the Tidewater region support gay marriage, while 42 percent oppose. A plurality of voters oppose gay marriage in the three other parts of the state: Northwest (46 percent support/49 percent oppose), South Central, which includes the Richmond area (41 percent support/56 percent oppose), and the western portions of the state (31 percent support/65 percent oppose).

More women than men support legalizing gay marriage, by a margin of 51 to 43 percent.

One-quarter of Republicans support legalizing gay marriage, with 71 percent in opposition. For Independents, 53 percent support gay marriage and 42 percent object. Democrats in the survey said they favor gay marriage by a 61 percent to 35 percent margin.

As a group, African-Americans were most critical of same sex marriage, with 40 percent supporting same-sex marriage legalization and 54 percent opposing it. Hispanic respondents were most supportive, with 64 percent supporting gay marriage and 34 percent opposing. For whites, 50 percent oppose gay marriage and 46 percent support it.

Just over one-third (35 percent) of Protestants supported gay marriage, as compared to 51 percent of Catholics.

Death Penalty

Comparisons among various groups of voters revealed capital punishment continues to receive widespread support across the commonwealth. By a margin of 74 percent to 59 percent, men are more willing to retain the death penalty than women.

A majority of respondents from all three partisan groups wanted to keep the death penalty, with 53 percent of Democrats supporting capital punishment, as compared to 69 percent of independents and 81 percent of Republicans. Just over half, 52 percent, of African-Americans support the death penalty, as compared to 54 percent of Hispanics and 72 percent of whites.

Respondents in all five regions of the state oppose ending the death penalty, with support for capital punishment ranging from a low of 59 percent support in northern Virginia to a high of 75 percent in the western part of the state. In the South Central region, which includes the Richmond area, 63 percent support the retention of capital punishment.

Retirement Age

On the question of whether the government should increase the normal retirement age from 67 to 69 to help balance the deficit, the biggest cleavages register among different age groups. Half of those surveyed between the ages of 18 and 29 support the two-year increase, with 46 percent of the respondents in that age group opposed to it, and another 4 percent are undecided.

All the other age groups turned thumbs down on the proposal. For those in the 30-44 age group, the delayed retirement idea obtained only 36 percent support. Less than one-third (32 percent) of those nearing retirement (those in the 45-64 age group) favor an increase in the retirement age, while 38 percent of those 65 or older support increasing the retirement age to help reduce the federal budget deficit.

Another major difference in support for increasing the retirement age is regional: in Northern Virginia, the state’s richest region, 48 percent support a delayed retirement, while in the state’s poorer western region, only 29 percent want the retirement age increased. In the South Central region, which includes the Richmond area, 36 percent support extending the normal working years to help balance the budget.

Immigration

On immigration, 84 percent of Virginia Democrats express support for a path to citizenship for those in the country illegally, as compared to 72 percent of Independents and 59 percent of Republicans.

The youngest group most favor creating a path to citizenship for those now in the U.S. illegally, with 83 percent of adults under the age of 30 expressing support. For the two middle-aged groups, 76 percent of those between the ages of 30 and 44 and 72 percent of those between the ages of 45 and 64 want government to develop a plan for eventual citizenship for those in the country illegally. Respondents at least 65 years old show more skepticism, but even a majority of seniors (52 percent) favor the initiative.

Support for immigration reform registered highest in northern Virginia, where 81 percent favor creating a path to citizenship for those in the country illegally, and the lowest in the state’s western region, where only 57 percent support the idea. The South Central region of the state once again occupies the political middle ground, with 72 percent of respondents from the area supporting the idea of a path to citizenship for illegal citizens.

Note:

The Virginia Survey March 2013, sponsored by University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,004 adults living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (502) and cell phone (502, including 245 without a landline phone). The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI). Interviews were done in English by Princeton Data Source from March 20 to 24, 2013. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 3.5 percentage points.

For more information contact Stephen J. Farnsworth by cell at (703) 380-3025 or by email at sfarnswo@umw.edu.