“When you look at the Republican [gubernatorial] field, they’re all basically in the mid-30’s. That means there’s a lot of uncertainty about how those candidates might do a year from now.”
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Scott Walker and the GOP Presidential Nomination Campaign (CTV News Canada)
“Scott Walker is going to be seen as a compelling candidate by a lot of Republicans,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington. “The fact that he does not focus on foreign policy for many Republicans is going to be an asset. That he focuses on bread and butter issues, that he focuses on social issues, these are things that many Republicans are going to want to see in their nominee.”
Why Mark Warner’s race turned into a nail-biter (Washington Post)
Stephen Hanna of the University of Mary Washington created a map as part of a research project by Stephen Farnsworth, Stephen Hanna and Benjamin Hermerding. It contrasts the shift in the vote for Mark Warner between 2001, when he became governor, with his vote in 2014. The swollen blue areas were more likely to vote for Warner over the span of 13 years — but also overlap with the areas where turnout dipped the most…..
As Farnsworth, Hanna, and Hemmerding put it: “The sea of rural blue that Warner enjoyed in 2001 has been replaced by deep red Republican sentiments. Rural voters who once backed him are now far less likely to split their tickets.”
Was Sen. Warner Victim Of His Own Success? (Talking Points Memo)
“The Democrats clearly needed to work harder in Virginia than they did. The natural advantages that Democrats have in urban areas are only advantages if they get the kind of turnout that can compensate the Republican advantages in more rural parts of the state,” University of Mary Washington political science professor Stephen Farnsworth told TPM. “You’re looking at an underperformance in Northern Virginia in particular by the Warner people, compared to even the governor’s race last year.”
Farnsworth pointed to the margins of Democratic strongholds in the state like Fairfax and Loudon counties where, he said, “you see that that performance didn’t measure up.”
“This is always a problem, by the way, for Democrats in Northern Virginia. Because they live in a Democratic area they often forget how conservative the rest of Virginia is and it takes a great deal of coaxing to convince people to participate in midterm elections and that’s doubly true in Norther Virginia,” Farnsworth added.
Warner Tries to Retain Edge in Tightening Senate Race (Richmond Times-Dispatch)
Democrats could learn from 1968 campaign (Column, Free-Lance Star)
BY VIC FINGERHUT AND STEPHEN J. FARNSWORTH
As Democrats survey the unappealing political scene of 2014, with its dispirited incumbents, energized Republican opposition and an unpopular incumbent president, they need to look back at the late innings resurgence of the Hubert Humphrey 1968 presidential campaign.
That election, waged under the some of the most unfavorable circumstances for Democrats in the last 50 years, offers three lessons: The party wins when it focuses on working-class voters; half-hearted attempts to split the difference with the GOP are doomed to fail; and this vigorous populist appeal will fall short if, like in 1968, the party waits until the last minute to push the election toward the party’s most favorable terrain in the most effective terms.
