“This may be one of the most closely contested races in the entire country,” says Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “First-term incumbents are generally more vulnerable than people who serve for longer periods of time, so they have to work particularly aggressively to retain that seat in the first reelection. The Republicans have a stronger candidate [than Brat] this time around, and one who showed a great ability to raise money, which is a key challenge in congressional elections.”
